Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
