A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
